The Ripple Effects of NIL on the NBA Draft

Why more players will stay in school—and how it’s reshaping the NBA Draft landscape.

I’ve been thinking a lot about how much the basketball world has changed in such a short period—and the thing is, those changes are still unfolding in real time. NIL, the transfer portal, and the evolving structure of college basketball have all played massive roles in reshaping the game at every level.

However, one area that hasn’t gotten enough attention is the effects of NIL on the NBA Draft.

Simply put, the old mentality of “strike while the iron is hot” doesn’t apply to as many prospects weighing the decision to turn pro or return to school as it once did.

Times are changing—and today, I’ll break down why.

The Financial Reality

Let’s start with the financials. It’s now rumored—quite credibly—that some high-level college players are set to make between $2–3 million per year through NIL deals. And that doesn’t even include BYU’s incoming star freshman, AJ Dybantsa, who’s rumored to earn more than double that next season.

But this isn’t just about surefire lottery picks or elite NBA prospects. We're also talking about really good college players with uncertain NBA futures—guys who may not be guaranteed to be first-round selections or even drafted at all, for that matter. And for that group, NIL changes everything.

Why? Because the risks and financial downside of leaving school too early are greater than ever.

In the NBA, only first-round picks receive fully guaranteed contracts. Second-round picks’ contracts are entirely negotiable. Sure, some teams will offer guaranteed money to second-rounders, but more and more are ending up on two-way contracts—a trend I expect to continue in this new era.

And here’s the kicker: a two-way deal for the 2025–26 season will be worth about $635,000 (half of the rookie minimum), but only around $318,000 of the total can be guaranteed—and even that has to be negotiated.

Now compare that to making $2–3 million—or even just $1 million—by staying in college another year. It’s not even close. And honestly, I hope that’s obvious.

The Risk of Being “Early”

Even for players who sneak into the late first round, the road is still filled with uncertainty. Sure, a first-round selection comes with a guaranteed deal, but the difference between going 10th and 20th—or 30th and 40th—can be massive when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture.

It’s not just about the rookie scale contract—it’s about the second contract. That’s where the truly life-changing money comes in. And the hard truth is, many draft picks never get there. They flame out. They struggle to carve out a niche. They bounce from team to team or between the G League and international leagues. The NBA is ruthless. The margin for error is razor-thin.

Of course, plenty of players selected throughout the draft—and even some who go undrafted—do make it. But let’s be honest: the lower a prospect is projected to be selected, the lower their odds of long-term success in the NBA.

On the flip side, take Cooper Flagg, the projected No. 1 pick. Some have floated the idea that he could return to Duke for his sophomore season. However, his long-term outlook vastly differs from the other players I’ve mentioned. He’s expected to be a very good NBA player at worst, with a high probability of becoming a star. That kind of trajectory strongly suggests he'll get a second NBA contract—and in today’s salary cap climate, that deal could be worth nearly $400 million if he’s maxed out.

In that case, we’re talking about generational wealth—so that clock must start immediately.

But getting back to the original point—if you’re not projected to be a lottery pick, or at least a lock to go in the first round, you’ve got to ask yourself a serious question:

Why leave millions in NIL money on the table to pursue a risky, uncertain path—where your NBA contract is likely worth less and not even fully guaranteed?

The International Effect

This NIL-fueled shift isn’t just impacting American players. More and more top international prospects are flocking to U.S. colleges—not just for exposure or development but to cash in. With NIL in full swing, college basketball has become a legitimate professional alternative for international players.

Take Kasparas Jakucionis at Illinois and Egor Demin at BYU—both left high-level international clubs in Spain, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid, to play college basketball.

Imagine if Giannis Antetokounmpo had played at Marquette, Luka Doncic at UCLA, or Nikola Jokic at Colorado. Well, this is the new reality. The next international greats may very well come from U.S. colleges—not overseas leagues.

As more international players take this route, the same factors impacting American prospects will increasingly apply to them, too.

How the Second Round Is Changing

Assuming many of the players I’ve described choose to return to school, we’ll start seeing a very different kind of second round in the NBA Draft moving forward.

Rather than being filled with raw underclassmen taking a swing at the pros based on upside, the second round will increasingly feature older players who ran out of college eligibility.

During this transition, expect more underclassmen to enter the draft to “test the waters,” attend the NBA Draft Combine, get feedback from teams, and ultimately return to school before the withdrawal deadline.

Subsequently, don’t be surprised if more second-rounders start coming out of the Portsmouth Invitational—an event traditionally featuring seniors and fringe NBA prospects expected to begin their careers in the G League or overseas.

Older, Smarter, Better

If that all sounds subtle—it’s not. This is a significant shift. And a few years from now, I believe the cycle will catch up in a big way—resulting in deeper drafts filled with players who are more polished, better coached, and simply ready to go.

We’re moving toward an era where college rosters are older, more experienced, and professionally operated. And that change will trickle down into the draft—especially in the second round.

When these prospects—aside from lottery-bound underclassmen—enter the league after completing full college careers, they’ll arrive as battle-tested, physically mature, well-coached players who are far more NBA-ready than the typical early-entry underclassmen we’ve seen in years past.

It’s already happening. It just needs a little more time to fully catch up.

When in Doubt? Go Back to School.

Make your money, develop your game, mature as a person and a player, and return next year with better film, more leverage, and a higher probability of long-term NBA success.

The draft process is changing rapidly, and a new logic is taking shape beneath the surface. One where patience is rewarded, risk is measured, and the path to the NBA doesn't always need to be rushed.

These might be the most significant ripple effects of all.

Closing Thoughts

We’re watching college basketball’s professionalization collide head-on with the business side of professional basketball. While that collision is creating some growing pains, the long-term result might actually be a win-win—for players, for teams, and for the overall health of the game.

So, in today’s landscape, in many cases, the smart money might just be on staying in school.

And for what it’s worth—I’m all for it.