In this episode of The Matt Babcock Show, Matt Babcock announces his new role with Cerebro Sports, an analytics company backed by Mark Cuban. He reflects on his introduction to sports analytics, including his grandfather's early influence and the use of advanced metrics in evaluating players. Matt emphasizes the importance of balancing traditional scouting with analytics and highlights Derek Murray's role in expanding Cerebro Sports.
Transcript from The Matt Babcock Show: Numbers Don't Lie, Dec 28, 2022
Matt Babcock: "It was announced last week that I was joining the scouting department of Cerebro Sports, a basketball analytics company backed by billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban. Perhaps leaving some scratching their heads and asking, how do Matt Babcock, a scout known for traveling aggressively to evaluate prospects in person, and Cerebro Sports, an analytics company fit together? Well today, I'm going to tell you about my new gig, Cerebro Sports, my introduction to sports analytics, and why it's a necessary part of my evaluation process.
"I'm Matt Babcock, and this is The Matt Babcock Show.
"It may seem like sports analytics is relatively new, but the truth is, it's been around a long time. For example, in 1861, baseball writer Henry Chadwick wrote that in order to obtain an accurate estimate of a player's skill, an analysis both of his play at the bat and in the field should be made, inclusive of the way in which he was put out. Of course, this is a very simplistic view of sports analytics compared to today's processes. However, it is an example of sports analytics. And although many of the algorithms and analytical models created since 1861 have become too complex for me to explain properly, the inclusion of sports analytics into scouting processes is an absolute must-have tool for one main reason, the numbers don't lie. So before I dive deeper into how I use analytics in my scouting operations, I'd like to share a quick story about my introduction to advanced metrics in sports.
"I mentioned in previous episodes that I was an avid baseball and basketball card collector while I was a kid. I studied the back of those cards like it was my job. So in, let's say, 1993, when I was about nine years old, I could have told you that Barry Bonds had a batting average of .336, hit 46 home runs, batted in 123 runs, and stole 29 bases. I could have also told you that Michael Jordan averaged 32.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.8 steals per game. Although those are just basic stats, similar to what Henry Chadwick referred to in 1861, these are examples of sports analytics in its most rudimentary form. Around that same time in 1993, I remember visiting my grandparents on my dad's side of the family in Phoenix, Arizona.
"I always loved going there for many reasons, but one specific reason was spending time and learning from my grandfather. My grandfather, originally from New England, was in the Air Force before accepting a computer programming position with IBM and settling in Arizona in 1962. Think about that for a second. My grandfather was a computer programmer in the early 1960s, more than 20 years before home computers became common when the first public form of the internet was recognized. So naturally, my grandfather had a significant headstart in that industry. He was a brilliant man. In addition to working with computers, he had many skills, including gardening, cooking, painting, and making jewelry. He was like a renaissance man, and he was a great person and grandfather. Unfortunately, he passed away a while back when I was in college, but I loved him very much and I miss him.
"Anyhow, it was 1993 and I was nine years old. I remember walking into my grandfather's office where he had big computer screens and gadgets all over the place. It felt sort of like a control room. It was unbelievable. As I walked in, he called me over and said, 'Matt, I wanna show you a project I've been working on.' Then he suddenly rolled his chair over to the other side of the room where he had printed out a stack of documents with a bunch of names and numbers on them. I saw players' names like Dominique Wilkins, Mookie Blaylock, Kevin Willis, and Stacey Augmon in rows of stats. However, these stats differed from those I'd become familiar with by studying my collection of trading cards. My uncle Pete was the general manager of the Atlanta Hawks at the time, and my grandfather explained that he had built a computer program to help him analyze players on his team and throughout the league.
"He further explained that he had created an analytical model to serve as a tool for my uncle to properly assess players' values and subsequently allow him to make better personnel decisions. Well, my uncle used my grandfather's model as a tool. They named it BBI, which stood for Basketball Index. He had started in the early 1980s, so by the time it was being shown to me, it had already been tweaked repeatedly for over a decade. Although my grandfather just did it as a hobby and to help my uncle, through word of mouth, a handful of teams showed interest in BBI and ultimately utilized the model. So my uncle Pete used BBI while he was the general manager of the Atlanta Hawks. And from that point in 1993, he made a lot of big moves. First, he traded longtime Atlanta Hawks players, Dominique Wilkins and Kevin Willis, then brought in new guys via trade, like Steve Smith and Christian Laettner. Then he made a big splash via free agency when he signed Dikembe Mutombo.
"Well, the Hawks never won a title, but they were one of the best teams in the league during the 1990s, making the playoffs seven years in a row. And just recently, my uncle Pete was nominated for the Basketball Hall of Fame. And regardless if he gets voted in or not, I think the nomination is a tremendous honor and accomplishment. So sports analytics have been around forever, but my grandfather introduced my family and me to the value of using advanced metrics as a tool when evaluating players. So years later, I've become an NBA draft analyst, and my primary responsibility is evaluating NBA prospects. So I'm often asked things like, 'When scouting, what are you looking for?' Well, it's a tricky question to answer because I have to juggle so many variables when evaluating players. The philosopher Aristotle once said, 'The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.' So with that said, I'm not looking for just one thing when evaluating prospects.
"Instead, I'm looking at everything. And then, when I can get a decent grip on a player's makeup, I do my best to determine if it all adds up to a basketball prospect that can contribute to a team's sustainable success. So perhaps you've seen the film or read the book Moneyball. The movie begins outlining the Oakland A's playoff run in 2001. Although a small market and low budget team, the A's had a successful showing that year. However, following the season, the A's lost their top stars, Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon. Both players agreed to lucrative contracts with big market teams, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. One of my favorite scenes from that movie is when A's general manager Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, meets with his scouting staff. They needed to figure out how to supplement the production of Giambi and Damon while spending minimal money, a tall task to say the least.
"So they go around the table as veteran scouts share their player suggestions. When one player is proposed, Beane asks, 'Can he hit?' Some scouts responded with things like, 'He's got a beautiful-looking swing,' and 'The ball pops off of his bat.' Then Beane, clearly frustrated, looks at a piece of paper, assumingly a stat sheet, and says, 'If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?' That simple and straightforward question in Moneyball has always stuck with me. And in a nutshell, that is an excellent example of how I use metrics within my evaluation process. It allows me to ask myself the right questions about prospects. Also in that scene of Moneyball, the veteran scouts, or some may refer to guys like that disrespectfully as old-timers, old heads, or dinosaurs. Anyway, the scouts in the movie went around breaking down players.
"Things were said like, 'Ugly girlfriend means no confidence,' or 'He's got the looks, he's ready to play the part, he just needs some playing time.' Subsequently, Beane goes off on them, challenging them to look at things differently, and suggesting they make decisions moving forward based purely on analytics. So although I glean some valuable perspective by watching that movie, it also represents a big problem in professional sports. Let me explain. Scouting in professional sports sometimes feels like American politics. There's a line drawn in the sand with two sides each convicted in their extreme opinions. And sometimes, it feels like you need to decide to be on one side or the other. Are you an analytics guy or an eye test guy? Okay, first of all, I don't believe evaluating prospects should be done by only looking at numbers.
"But even as someone who takes pride in seeing prospects in person and utilizing the eye test, I don't believe that's enough by itself. I mentioned before when evaluating players, there are many variables to juggle, as I need to learn about so many different elements about a player to properly assess them. Regarding evaluating on-court talent, I believe that like anything in life, there needs to be balance. There needs to be a healthy balance between in-person scouting, watching film and statistical analysis. Then there's Intel gathering too, but we'll leave that part out today. So I don't want to be an analytics guy or an eye test guy. I want to be a hybrid of the two. I want to be a jack of all trades. I believe that's the recipe for becoming a great talent evaluator.
"So several years ago, I was in Oklahoma City to watch the New Zealand Breakers play a preseason exhibition game versus the Oklahoma City Thunder. I was there to watch NBA draft prospect, R.J. Hampton. And like I usually do, I posted on social media that I was there with a short video clip of Hampton warming up before the game. I do that for several reasons. First, I like for there to be a visual scouting trail to give people confidence that I'm doing the proper amount of work in hopes that it provides more confidence in my rankings and analysis. Second, I also like it to be known when I attend games because it often leads to people reaching out. Sometimes it's parents, former coaches, agents, and friends of the players I'm scouting. It's good for networking.
"So while I was in OKC to scout Hampton, I received a DM on Twitter from Derek Murray. At the time, I didn't really know who Derek was, although we followed each other on Twitter. Anyway, he said he was at the game too and would like to meet if possible. So we met and chatted up during halftime. Derek explained that he worked for The Thunder on the business side, but his true passion was basketball and scouting. I was really impressed by Derek. We exchanged contact information and I offered him an internship a few weeks later. Fast forward several years now, and Derek went from being a guy that helped with tedious back-end tasks to become my most trusted scout and confidant. He became my right-hand man.
"Derek is hardworking, reliable, smart and adaptable. He's also very loyal, and honestly, he's become like a little brother to me. Derek is family, and I'm extremely proud of how far he's come in a short time. Recently, Derek was hired by Cerebro Sports to become the head of basketball. When he was first hired, the company was primarily an analytics company. However, Derek played a significant part in expanding its business model and scaling out its operations. So quickly, it's gone from being a database that can serve as a scouting tool similar to my grandfather's old BBI to becoming a fully-fledged scouting operation that's well on its way to becoming the most robust scouting database in the business. And this is how I fit into the equation. Last week, it was announced that I had joined the Cerebro Sports Scouting Team.
"In full transparency, I started organizing a scouting service and planned to offer it to NBA teams. However, when Derek accepted the job at Cerebro Sports and assisted in shaping their new plans, they proposed that I scout for their company instead of working for teams directly. Well, I agreed to the proposal. So now, under the leadership of co-founder and president Ryan Gerardo, Derek, the backing of Mark Cuban, and a group of talented scouts and individuals, I'm set to begin working for Cerebro Sports next week. In my new role, I essentially just keep doing what I've been doing. I'm not slowing down in the media, but now moving forward, I will provide detailed scouting reports on imminent draft prospects in top-rated high school players to Cerebro Sports. And I'm really excited to see what the future holds with the company and my continued partnership with my right-hand man, Derek Murray. So as I wrap it up today, I'd like to leave you with two things that I shared earlier. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and the numbers don't lie.
"I'm Matt Babcock, and this is The Matt Babcock Show."
FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
